SAG Awards

Outstanding Cast in a Motion Picture

How reliably does the SAG Awards Outstanding Cast in a Motion Picture predict the Academy Award for Best Picture? An analysis of 32 comparable award seasons from the full dataset.

46.9%

All-Time Accuracy

36%

Since 2015

50%

Peak (1990s)

15/32

Correct Predictions

Accuracy by Decade

How consistency has changed over time

Oscar BP Match Rate by Decade

Year by Year

Every season at a glance

Each cell is one award season. Hover to see details.

All Seasons: Did this show predict the Oscar?

Correctly predicted Oscar

Oscar diverged

Notable Divergences

When the Oscar said no (since 2000)

These are the seasons where the SAG Awards winner did not go on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.

Oscar vs SAG Cast Winner: Divergences Since 2000

Season	Oscar Winner	SAG Cast Winner
2025	One Battle After Another	Sinners
2024	Anora	Conclave
2020	Nomadland	The Trial of the Chicago 7
2019	Parasite	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2018	Green Book	Black Panther
2017	The Shape of Water	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2016	Moonlight	Hidden Figures
2013	12 Years a Slave	American Hustle
2011	The Artist	The Help
2009	The Hurt Locker	Inglourious Basterds
2006	The Departed	Little Miss Sunshine
2004	Million Dollar Baby	Sideways
2001	A Beautiful Mind	Gosford Park
2000	Gladiator	Traffic

Verdict

Assessment

Steady but not dominant

The SAG ensemble award is voted on by actors, the largest bloc in the Academy, which gives it real predictive weight at 47% overall. It has been consistently in the 40-50% range across every decade it has existed, showing no signs of the decline seen in GG or BAFTA.

SAG is most powerful in combination with guild awards. A SAG + DGA + PGA sweep is the strongest possible Oscar signal.