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Directors Guild
Outstanding Feature Film
How reliably does the Directors Guild Outstanding Feature Film predict the Academy Award for Best Picture? An analysis of 78 comparable award seasons from the full dataset.
50/78
Correct Predictions
Accuracy by Decade
How consistency has changed over time
Oscar BP Match Rate by Decade
Year by Year
Every season at a glance
Each cell is one award season. Hover to see details.
All Seasons: Did this show predict the Oscar?
Correctly predicted Oscar
Notable Divergences
When the Oscar said no (since 2000)
These are the seasons where the Directors Guild winner did not go on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.
Oscar vs DGA Winner: Divergences Since 2000
| Season | Oscar Winner | DGA Winner |
|---|
| 2021 | CODA | The Power of the Dog |
| 2019 | Parasite | 1917 |
| 2018 | Green Book | Roma |
| 2017 | The Shape of Water | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
| 2016 | Moonlight | La La Land |
| 2015 | Spotlight | The Revenant |
| 2013 | 12 Years a Slave | Gravity |
| 2006 | The Departed | Dreamgirls |
| 2005 | Crash | Brokeback Mountain |
| 2004 | Million Dollar Baby | The Aviator |
| 2000 | Gladiator | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
Verdict
Assessment
The gold standard
The Directors Guild award is the most historically reliable Oscar predictor at 64% overall, and 83% in the 2020s. Directors make up a large Academy bloc and vote with craft-based criteria that closely mirror Academy thinking. The DGA has predicted the Oscar director in all but 8 cases in its history.
The DGA winner does not always go on to win Oscar Best Picture, only Best Director. But when the DGA winner's film also wins SAG and PGA, Oscar Best Picture follows at a very high rate.