Producers Guild

Outstanding Theatrical Motion Picture

How reliably does the Producers Guild Outstanding Theatrical Motion Picture predict the Academy Award for Best Picture? An analysis of 37 comparable award seasons from the full dataset.

70.3%

All-Time Accuracy

64%

Since 2015

100%

Peak (1980s)

26/37

Correct Predictions

Accuracy by Decade

How consistency has changed over time

Oscar BP Match Rate by Decade

Year by Year

Every season at a glance

Each cell is one award season. Hover to see details.

All Seasons: Did this show predict the Oscar?

Correctly predicted Oscar

Oscar diverged

Notable Divergences

When the Oscar said no (since 2000)

These are the seasons where the Producers Guild winner did not go on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.

Oscar vs PGA Winner: Divergences Since 2000

Season	Oscar Winner	PGA Winner
2019	Parasite	1917
2017	The Shape of Water	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2016	Moonlight	La La Land
2015	Spotlight	The Big Short
2006	The Departed	Little Miss Sunshine
2005	Crash	Brokeback Mountain
2004	Million Dollar Baby	The Aviator
2001	A Beautiful Mind	Moulin Rouge!

Verdict

Assessment

Most reliable predictor

The PGA has the highest Oscar Best Picture accuracy at 70% overall, and a perfect 100% in the 2020s (6 for 6). The Darryl F. Zanuck award uses a preferential ballot system that closely mirrors the Academy's own voting method, and producers make up the largest named branch of the Academy.

If one number to watch, it is the PGA. In the modern era it has been nearly infallible. The only caveat: it does not always overlap with the Oscar director winner.