BAFTA

Best Film

How reliably does the BAFTA Best Film predict the Academy Award for Best Picture? An analysis of 79 comparable award seasons from the full dataset.

35.4%

All-Time Accuracy

27%

Since 2015

50%

Peak (1960s)

28/79

Correct Predictions

Accuracy by Decade

How consistency has changed over time

Oscar BP Match Rate by Decade

Year by Year

Every season at a glance

Each cell is one award season. Hover to see details.

All Seasons: Did this show predict the Oscar?

Correctly predicted Oscar

Oscar diverged

Notable Divergences

When the Oscar said no (since 2000)

These are the seasons where the BAFTA winner did not go on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.

Oscar vs BAFTA Winner: Divergences Since 2000

Season	Oscar Winner	BAFTA Winner
2024	Anora	Conclave
2022	Everything Everywhere All at Once	All Quiet on the Western Front
2021	CODA	The Power of the Dog
2019	Parasite	1917
2018	Green Book	Roma
2017	The Shape of Water	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2016	Moonlight	La La Land
2015	Spotlight	The Revenant
2014	Birdman	Boyhood
2007	No Country for Old Men	Atonement
2006	The Departed	The Queen
2005	Crash	Brokeback Mountain
2004	Million Dollar Baby	The Aviator
2002	Chicago	The Pianist
2001	A Beautiful Mind	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Verdict

Assessment

Diverging from Hollywood

BAFTA voters have increasingly diverged from the Academy, particularly favoring British productions and international cinema. Despite a 35% overall rate, BAFTA has shown signs of improvement in the 2020s (50%) as both bodies have diversified their membership.

BAFTA is most useful as a negative indicator. If a film wins BAFTA but lacks guild support, temper expectations for the Oscar.